Let’s be honest—there’s never a dull Open Championship, and with this year’s 153rd edition returning to Royal Portrush, the stakes feel even higher. Between the media circus, the unpredictable weather rolling in off the Antrim coast, and the sheer weight of expectation, it’s no wonder even the biggest names can come unstuck. But no matter how many variables get thrown in this week, there are a few familiar faces I wouldn’t bet against being right there in the mix come Sunday evening.
First up, Rory McIlroy. Now a Grand Slam champion at long last, he’s got that extra layer of belief and that can make all the difference.
People forget he shot a course-record 61 around Portrush when he was just 16 years old. Of course, this week is a different animal altogether—single-tee starts and swirling gusts, but when Rory’s confident, he plays with a freedom most golfers can only dream of.
Then there’s Shane Lowry. He’s already proven he can handle the rough and tumble of an Open. The rain came in sideways at Portrush in 2019, the pressure was relentless, and Shane never blinked. He didn’t just win—he dominated. That kind of experience matters when you’re battling brutal conditions and the mental grind that goes with them.
He knows exactly what it takes to close out an Open, and that’s why he’ll be a Major threat again this week. He also tends to thrive when expectations are sky-high.
And you can’t forget Padraig Harrington, another proud Irishman with a pedigree that commands respect. He’s just bagged another win on the Champions Tour and is striking the ball as well as I’ve ever seen. Padraig has three Majors to his name, including that Open at Birkdale, so he’s no stranger to this stage or pressure. The big question is whether the putter cooperates. If it does, don’t be surprised if he’s hanging around the leaderboard. We’ve all seen what can happen when a senior player feels comfortable, just think back to Tom Watson nearly winning at Turnberry at 59. He was a single solid bounce away from one of the greatest stories in the game before Stewart Cink spoiled the party. Harrington might not be quite as much of a long shot, given his form, but it would still be a brilliant story.
And how about Lee Westwood? He’s proof that hard work and persistence still count for something. Lee flew all the way from Dallas to Scotland to grind his way into the field at the final qualifying event at Dundonald. At 51, that’s no small effort and he did it because the Open means the world to him. You could see how much it meant to qualify. When a player’s invested like that, it can be dangerous for the rest of the field.
Lee’s been around the block too many times to get rattled by a bad bounce or a gust of wind. He’ll believe, deep down, that he can still pull something special out of the bag.
One name you can never ignore at a Major is Brooks Koepka. He’s been showing plenty of frustration lately, but in Brooks’s case, that’s usually a good sign. It tells me he still cares and he’s hungry for more. You only have to look at the record. He’s won more Majors than any other player in the last decade. That’s not luck. That’s a mindset built for big occasions. Brooks doesn’t really care about the week-to-week Tour grind. It’s Majors and the Ryder Cup that get his attention, and when he locks in, he’s a handful for anyone. His game suits links golf too. He can flight it down and hit it on the button when he has to. If he gets off to a fast start, don’t be surprised if he reminds everyone exactly why he’s been the most prolific Major winner in the past decade.
Of course, the weather at Portrush will play a massive role. You only have to think back to Tiger Woods missing the cut at St Andrews in 2015 to see how ruthless the Open can be. Even the greatest players can look ordinary when the wind starts to swirl and the temperature drops. That was a week when half the field got stuck on the wrong side of the draw. It’s not a question of whether the forecast will influence the leaderboard, it’s a question of who can handle it best. The players who can flight the ball low, manage spin and keep a cool head when everyone else is cursing their luck will be the ones still standing come Sunday.
That’s what makes the Open so special — there’s no script. You can be the favourite, the underdog, or the wily veteran nobody saw coming and if you can embrace the chaos, you’ve got a chance.
One thing’s for sure—if you want to lift the Claret Jug at Portrush, you’re going to have to earn every single shot. And that’s exactly how it should be. n
